CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-02-25T01:25:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from  excerpted Forecast Discussion below)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Feb 25 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center


Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was high. An X4/2b x-ray flare occurred at 25/0049 UTC 
from newly numbered Region 1990 (S13E69, Hsx/alpha). There were also  
associated Type II (est. shock speed 1972 km/s) and Type IV radio
sweeps, as well as a fast-moving, asymmetric halo coronal mass ejection
(CME) that was first seen in Lasco C3 imagery at 25/0130 UTC. This CME
appeared to be mostly directed east and south away from the Sun-Earth
line. Region 1990 also produced an M1 flare at 24/1205 UTC with an
associated narrow, non-Earth-directed CME. Region 1990 appeared to be
the return of old active Region 1967 (S13, L=114). Regions 1986 (N14E01,
Cro/beta) and 1989 (N08E45, Dao/beta) both produced a couple low-level
C-class flares, yet showed no significant changes during the day. Region
1982 (S10W29, Ekc/beta-gamma) had slight growth in the leader spots, but
was fairly inactive during the period. The remaining regions were either
stable or showed signs of decay. An Enlil run will be accomplished on
the CME associated with the X4/2b flare as data becomes available, but
rough initial analysis indicates the Earth may see a weak glancing blow
late on Feb 26 from this CME.

Solar Wind

.Forecast...
Wind speed is expected to decrease on Feb 25 as the CH HSS wanes.
Nominal solar wind conditions are expected during the beginning of Feb
26, with a slight increase near the end as CME effects from the 25 Feb
glancing blow CME begin. Feb 27 should see slightly elevated wind speed
as a recurrent, negative-polarity CH HSS becomes geo-effective and weak
CME effects persist.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
Feb 25 as weak CH HSS effects subside. Activity is expected to decrease
to quiet levels for the first part of Feb 26, then see a possible
increase to unsettled levels following the potential arrival of a weak,
glancing blow CME near the end of the period. Quiet to unsettled levels
are expected to persist on Feb 27 as CME effects mix with effects from
another CH HSS.
--

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Feb 26 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was high. Region 1990 (S12E64, Hsx/alpha) produced an
X4/2b flare at 25/0049 UTC accompanied by a Type II radio sweep
(estimated shock velocity 1972 km/s), a Type IV radio sweep, a 3700 sfu
Tenflare, a loop prominence system, and a coronal mass ejection (CME).
Region 1990 was still fairly close to the east limb, which hindered
analysis somewhat; but there appeared to be opposite-polarity spots
within the penumbra of the large leader spot, indicative of strong
magnetic shear and gradients. The CME associated with the X4/2b flare
had a mostly-eastward trajectory (estimated speed 1342 km/s), with a
minor Earthward component. Abutted Regions 1981 (S08W48, Eai/beta) and
1982 (S10W36, Esc/beta-gamma) produced an isolated optical subflare and
each appeared to be in a gradual decay phase. Region 1986 (N14W05,
Cro/beta) showed no significant changes, yet managed to produce two
mid-level C-class flares, the largest of which was a C5/1n at 25/1510
UTC. Region 1989 (N08E38, Cao/beta) showed minor spot development during
the day and produced a C5/Sf flare at 25/0432 UTC. There were no other
Earth-directed CMEs detected during the period.
 
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be moderate through the period (Feb 26 -
28), with a chance for an additional X-class flare from Region 1990.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. A greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1 - Minor) occurred
at geosynchronous orbit in the wake of the X4/2b flare. The event began
at 25/1355 UTC and flux levels gradually increased through the period,
with a peak reading of 23 pfu at 25/2020 UTC. The event continued at the
time of this discussion. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was enhanced following today's X4/2b flare, but did
not quite reach the 1 pfu event level (peak 0.9 pfu at 25/1945 UTC).

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels during the period (Feb 26 - 28) with
a chance for high levels on Feb 28. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
(S1 - Minor) at geosynchronous orbit is expected to persist into Feb 26
and is expected to decay below event (S1) levels during the latter half
of the day. Proton flux levels are expected to decrease to background
levels by late on Feb 27, barring further proton flare activity from
Region 1990. There is a chance the greater than 100 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit will reach the 1 pfu event threshold during the
first half of Feb 26, then is expected to gradually decay.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
ACE data indicated a return to nominal solar wind conditions during the
period. Wind speed gradually decreased from a high of 489 km/s at
25/0159 UTC to a low of 355 km/s late in the period. IMF Bt was fairly
steady in the 1 to 3 nT range. IMF Bz was variable in the +/- 3 nT
range, with mostly northward values until approximately 25/0800 UTC. IMF
Phi data indicated a negative-polarity (toward) solar-sector orientation
until approximately 25/0700 UTC, then shifted to a positive-polarity
orientation for the remainder of the day.

.Forecast...
solar wind speed is expected to be nominal until late on Feb 26. The 
CME from today's X4/2b flare is expected to arrive late on Feb 26 with
attendant increases in wind speed, IMF Bt, and IMF Bz variability. A
negative-polarity CH HSS is expected to commence during Feb 27. Enlil
CME- and ambient-based model runs predict wind speed as high as 600 km/s
with these two disturbances.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels during
Feb 26 - 28, due to a combination of CME and coronal hole high-speed
stream effects (CH HSS). The CME from the X4/2b flare is expected to
reach Earth at around 26/2200 UTC. The CH HSS is expected to commence on
Feb 27. There is also a slight chance for minor storm conditions (G1 -
Minor) on Feb 28.

--
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Feb 26 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 26-Feb 28 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 26-Feb 28 2014

            Feb 26     Feb 27     Feb 28
00-03UT        2          3          3     
03-06UT        2          4          4     
06-09UT        2          3          3     
09-12UT        2          3          3     
12-15UT        2          2          3     
15-18UT        2          2          3     
18-21UT        2          1          2     
21-00UT        4          3          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

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